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PRISMA flow diagram.
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Figure 1

PRISMA flow diagram.

Risk of bias graph: review authors' judgements about each risk of bias item presented as percentages across all included studies.
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Figure 2

Risk of bias graph: review authors' judgements about each risk of bias item presented as percentages across all included studies.

Risk of bias summary: review authors' judgements about each risk of bias item for each included study.
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Figure 3

Risk of bias summary: review authors' judgements about each risk of bias item for each included study.

Comparison 1 Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment versus standard care, Outcome 1 Cardiovascular mortality (as defined by trialists).
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Analysis 1.1

Comparison 1 Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment versus standard care, Outcome 1 Cardiovascular mortality (as defined by trialists).

Comparison 1 Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment versus standard care, Outcome 2 Cardiovascular hospitalisation (as defined by trialists).
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Analysis 1.2

Comparison 1 Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment versus standard care, Outcome 2 Cardiovascular hospitalisation (as defined by trialists).

Comparison 1 Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment versus standard care, Outcome 3 Cardiovascular hospitalisation (as defined by trialists) by natriuretic peptide level.
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Analysis 1.3

Comparison 1 Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment versus standard care, Outcome 3 Cardiovascular hospitalisation (as defined by trialists) by natriuretic peptide level.

Comparison 1 Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment versus standard care, Outcome 4 All‐cause mortality.
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Analysis 1.4

Comparison 1 Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment versus standard care, Outcome 4 All‐cause mortality.

Comparison 1 Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment versus standard care, Outcome 5 All‐cause hospitalisation (all occurrences).
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Analysis 1.5

Comparison 1 Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment versus standard care, Outcome 5 All‐cause hospitalisation (all occurrences).

Comparison 1 Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment versus standard care, Outcome 6 Ventricular dysfunction (as defined by trialists).
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Analysis 1.6

Comparison 1 Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment versus standard care, Outcome 6 Ventricular dysfunction (as defined by trialists).

Comparison 1 Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment versus standard care, Outcome 7 Change in NP level at the end of follow‐up.
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Analysis 1.7

Comparison 1 Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment versus standard care, Outcome 7 Change in NP level at the end of follow‐up.

Summary of findings for the main comparison. Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment compared to standard care for the prevention of cardiovascular events in patients without heart failure

Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment compared to standard care for the prevention of cardiovascular events in patients without heart failure

Patient or population: patients without heart failure
Setting: any
Intervention: natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment
Comparison: standard care

Outcomes

Anticipated absolute effects* (95% CI)

Relative effect
(95% CI)

No. of participants
(studies)

Certainty of the evidence
(GRADE)

Comments

Risk with standard care

Risk with natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment

Cardiovascular mortality

Follow‐up: 2 years

Study population

RR 0.33
(0.04 to 3.17)

300
(1 RCT)

⊕⊕⊝⊝
LOWa

Cardiovascular deaths not available, so cardiac deaths used

20 per 1000

7 per 1000
(1 to 63)

Cardiovascular hospitalisation (as defined by trialists)

Follow‐up range:

2 years to mean 4.2 years

Study population

RR 0.52
(0.40 to 0.68)

1674
(2 RCTs)

⊕⊕⊕⊝
MODERATEb

163 per 1000

85 per 1000
(65 to 111)

All‐cause mortality
Follow‐up: range 2 years to mean 4.3 years

Study population

RR 0.90
(0.60 to 1.35)

1354
(2 RCTs)

⊕⊕⊝⊝
LOWc,d

60 per 1000

54 per 1000
(36 to 81)

All‐cause hospitalisation (all occurrences)
Follow‐up: range 2 years to mean 4.3 years

Study population

RR 0.83
(0.75 to 0.92)

1354
(2 RCTs)

⊕⊕⊕⊝
MODERATEb

601 per 1000

499 per 1000
(457 to 553)

Ventricular dysfunction (as defined by trialists)
Assessed with Doppler echocardiography
Follow‐up: mean 4.2 years

Study population

RR 0.61
(0.41 to 0.91)

1374
(1 RCT)

⊕⊕⊕⊕
HIGHe

Ventricular dysfunction was defined by trialists as left ventricular dysfunction and heart failure. Left ventricular dysfunction (LVD) included all patients with asymptomatic left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) and/or asymptomatic left ventricular diastolic dysfunction (LVDD). Heart failure included all patients with LVD (LVSD and/or LVDD) and with symptoms of heart failure requiring emergency admission to hospital

87 per 1000

53 per 1000
(36 to 79)

Change in NP level at the end of follow‐up
Follow‐up: mean 4.2 years

Mean change in NP level at the end of follow‐up was 9.52 pg/mL

MD 4.06 pg/mL higher
(15.07 lower to 6.95 higher)

1374
(1 RCT)

⊕⊕⊕⊝
MODERATEf

These data come from Ledwidge 2013; NP level was reported as BNP. Huelsmann 2013 also reported change in NT‐proBNP after 1 year of treatment. However, these data were presented as median and interquartile range; therefore we could not calculate mean difference

*The risk in the intervention group (and its 95% confidence interval) is based on the assumed risk in the comparison group and the relative effect of the intervention (and its 95% CI).

CI: confidence interval; RCT: randomised controlled trial; RR: risk ratio.

GRADE Working Group grades of evidence.
High certainty: we are very confident that the true effect lies close to that of the estimate of the effect.
Moderate certainty: we are moderately confident in the effect estimate: the true effect is likely to be close to the estimate of the effect, but there is a possibility that it is substantially different.
Low certainty: our confidence in the effect estimate is limited: the true effect may be substantially different from the estimate of the effect.
Very low certainty: we have very little confidence in the effect estimate: the true effect is likely to be substantially different from the estimate of effect.

aImprecision: very wide 95% confidence interval, which includes the line of null effect and is consistent with the possibility of both important benefits and harms. The sample size is small. Downgraded by two levels.

bRisk of bias: both studies did not blind patients or personnel. Downgraded by one level.

cImprecision: wide 95% confidence interval, which includes the line of null effect and is consistent with the possibility of important benefits and harms. Downgraded by one level.

dRisk of bias: downgraded by one level due to attrition bias as one study excluded from analysis patients who were lost to follow‐up and those who withdrew, who did not have at least one year of detailed follow‐up cost data.

eRisk of bias: echocardiographer and cardiologist reviewing end of study echo were blinded and diagnosis of ventricular dysfunction was based on clearly defined echocardiographic measures, which removed subjectivity in outcome assessment. Not downgraded.

fImprecision: wide CIs that cross the line of no effect (zero) and include the possibility of the intervention causing both benefit and harm. Downgraded by one level.

Figuras y tablas -
Summary of findings for the main comparison. Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment compared to standard care for the prevention of cardiovascular events in patients without heart failure
Comparison 1. Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment versus standard care

Outcome or subgroup title

No. of studies

No. of participants

Statistical method

Effect size

1 Cardiovascular mortality (as defined by trialists) Show forest plot

1

Risk Ratio (M‐H, Fixed, 95% CI)

Subtotals only

2 Cardiovascular hospitalisation (as defined by trialists) Show forest plot

2

1674

Risk Ratio (M‐H, Fixed, 95% CI)

0.52 [0.40, 0.68]

3 Cardiovascular hospitalisation (as defined by trialists) by natriuretic peptide level Show forest plot

2

1674

Risk Ratio (M‐H, Fixed, 95% CI)

0.50 [0.38, 0.65]

3.1 BNP < 50 pg/mL and NT‐proBNP < 125 pg/mL

1

876

Risk Ratio (M‐H, Fixed, 95% CI)

0.55 [0.32, 0.95]

3.2 BNP > 50 pg/mL and NT‐proBNP > 125 pg/mL

2

798

Risk Ratio (M‐H, Fixed, 95% CI)

0.48 [0.36, 0.65]

4 All‐cause mortality Show forest plot

2

1354

Risk Ratio (M‐H, Fixed, 95% CI)

0.90 [0.60, 1.35]

5 All‐cause hospitalisation (all occurrences) Show forest plot

2

1354

Risk Ratio (M‐H, Fixed, 95% CI)

0.83 [0.75, 0.92]

6 Ventricular dysfunction (as defined by trialists) Show forest plot

1

Risk Ratio (M‐H, Fixed, 95% CI)

Subtotals only

7 Change in NP level at the end of follow‐up Show forest plot

1

Mean Difference (IV, Fixed, 95% CI)

Subtotals only

Figuras y tablas -
Comparison 1. Natriuretic peptide‐guided treatment versus standard care